In a bold move that marks the most substantial increase in gas tariffs for the Russian population in over a decade, the Russian authorities are charting a course to bolster Gazprom’s dwindling finances. This decision comes on the heels of Gazprom’s substantial revenue loss in the critical European market, where it has seen a staggering 75% drop in income.
As revealed in the recently published forecast of the country’s socio-economic development by the Ministry of Economy of the Russian Federation, wholesale gas tariffs for the population will witness an initial hike of 11.2% beginning in July 2024, followed by an additional 8.2% increase slated for July 2025, as reported by The Moscow Times.
The cumulative effect of these tariff adjustments will result in a formidable 20% surge in gas prices for citizens within two years. Considering the economic backdrop of the ongoing war, this translates to a 34% increase since the conflict’s outset. Notably, last year saw gas tariffs being indexed twice—a 3% increase in July and an 8.5% hike in December—while no indexation occurred in 2023.
The last substantial surge in gas tariffs, a 15% annual increase, transpired back in 2013. However, the current circumstances have compelled authorities to once again pass on a significant portion of the financial burden to consumers amidst Gazprom’s pronounced financial woes.
Gazprom’s recent performance paints a stark picture. The company experienced a year of historically low gas exports, with 2022 marking the lowest volume of gas sold abroad since the twilight years of the USSR, amounting to just 100 billion cubic meters. In 2023, gas exports to Europe from Russia plummeted to levels unseen since the latter half of the 1970s, with only 12.1 billion cubic meters in the first half of the year.
The latter part of 2022 witnessed a series of successive cut-offs of Russian gas to nearly all European countries, leading Gazprom to incur a net loss of 1.3 trillion rubles. While 2023 managed to bring some relief, with the company achieving a profit, it was a mere fraction of the previous year’s earnings, totaling 296 billion rubles. Notably, Gazprom’s cash reserves have dwindled considerably, experiencing a threefold reduction since the onset of the war—from an initial “cash cushion” of 2 trillion rubles at the beginning of July 2023 to just under 700 billion rubles remaining.
The implications of these tariff hikes and Gazprom’s financial challenges are poised to reverberate across the Russian economy and the international energy landscape. As the Kremlin seeks to stabilize Gazprom’s precarious financial position, the Russian population faces the prospect of increased energy costs, underscoring the complex interplay between geopolitics and domestic policy in the realm of energy security.