the chances of negotiation to end the Russian war on Ukraine. More missile deaths in Ukraine, Russian military personnel killed across the border President Vladimir Putin says he’s prepared to negotiate and accuses Ukraine of refusing towards Wales. What are the chances of a negotiated settlement to the war?
The war in Ukraine is the worst military conflict in Europe since the second. There’s no official death toll, but in the ten months of fighting they’ve been 10s of thousands of military and civilian casualties, and millions of people have fled their homes. All wars end eventually, some in outright victory and defeat, others around the negotiating table. Ukraine’s President, Vladimir Zelensky, is reportedly working on a peace plan. To be involved in February, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin says he’s open to discussions to end the war and blames his opponents for refusing to negotiate.
We believe they are acting in the right direction. They are defending our national interests and the interests of citizens. They don’t have any other choice but to protect our citizens. However, they are prepared to negotiate some acceptable outcomes with all the participants of this process. But it’s their business.
That Putin’s apparent willingness to negotiate is a delay tactic after Russia suffered major setbacks on the battlefield. Only a few days of this year left. They must be aware that our enemy will try to make this time dark and difficult for us. Russia has lost everything it could this year, but it is trying to compensate for its losses. They know that darkness will not prevent them from bringing the invaders to their new defeats. But they must be ready for any scenario.”
Quite predictably, the West and Ukraine have rejected this idea of any kind of peace talks, though whilst there is still a war in Ukraine, on Ukraine some would say. Going on, is President Vladimir Putin serious about these talks?
President Putin has recently been saying, expressing his desire to find a negotiated conclusion to this conflict, even calling it war, which she previously didn’t Russian diplomats or more were saying the same. So, it seems that the Kremlin. Wants to have the conclusion of the hostilities, but of course on their terms. There have also been other expressions that have come from Moscow. Today there’s an article published in the government receives Gazeta by former president Michel Medvedev, who stars still right now an official in the Security Council of the Russian Federation, who says that no peace. Well, in negotiations with the premiums, Russia is going to balance on the brink of a total nuclear war until the West accepts Russian conditions on giving it full security guarantees.
Pause in the fighting to freeze the situation as it is right now. It’s understood in Moscow that in key off and the west, that’s not right now accepted in the West. They’re different opinions, though there’s about packing up, and so that means Moscow, most likely putting more military pressure on Ukraine to facilitate.
What do you make of what Pavel Felgenhauer has said? There is this idea that Putin might be ready for peace talks. Do you believe Vladimir Putin?
you know, to be ready for the talks doesn’t mean to be ready for withdrawal or the peace or the end of the conflict, because negotiations, any type of negotiations, that is just the instrument. The question is what you are going to discuss during these negotiations. Mr. Putin is ready for certain types of negotiations, but what he would like to do? Change there. First, it is quite a surrender of Ukraine or at least part of its national interest and sovereignty.
And we hear it not only from Mr. Mitigative but from Mr. Putin himself. And the second is, you know, the deeds speak louder than the words on the same day when Mr. Putin said about negotiation, It works the extreme shutting off your Sun City, the newly liberated town in the South, with 16 dead and 80 wounded.
When you’re speaking about negotiations as a way for peace, Ukraine is not trying to destroy the city that you just lost, and Ukraine is not bringing additional weapons and receiving the last week. The additional weapons coming to all borders of Ukraine and especially in the Parisian region, and the fighting just intensified in many of these places. So, we understand that as for now, Mr. Putin needs negotiations politically for Ukraine, but tactically as part of that, pretty good for some time. that makes an interesting point.
The idea is that there are freezing these tensions and then going to negotiating talks, All of these issues can only be negotiated once. The part once the two people sit round a table.
First, let’s look at manipulation because of Ukrainian training cycles, right? Plantations from day one not speaking about the last nine years of negotiations with Mr. Putin. The last negotiations between the Ukrainian and Russian presidents happens in December 2019 are aware in Paris they agreed that the promises. President will meet and talk again, since the Russian President possibly rejected any type of negotiation, telling it’s nothing to talk about with Ukrainian.
when they appeared in February with these rounds of invasion, we had Ukrainian-Russian negotiations in Belarus in Eastern quote. What are the results?
Because even when Russia started to lose its comfort, they wanted only what if you go it departed
elimination of Ukrainian statehood. Because they were talking about our language, our history, about our foreign policy choices. They were speaking about great education, Ukrainian people, and that the world, looks marginal.
Those are the words of the political leaders of the country. So now, after nine months the situation, didn’t change. That’s why when the Ukrainian President is saying about the expiation, he is not rejecting negotiations as the instrument for final agreements. But he’s raising questions about it. What are we going to negotiate if we are coming again, and Mr. Putin is saying that what like about some denotification of Ukraine?
Just 50 years ago, there were the Christmas bombings of North Vietnam by the Americans, ordered by President Richard Nixon to facilitate peace talks in Paris. And we’ll peace talks as soon a resume there and the agreement was found of course, in the end. Ended with the North Vietnamese taking over South Vietnam. So, this is not the bombings and peace talks often come together. And I believe that right now Russian long-range attacks into Ukraine have also the prime objective of forcing Ukraine.
Sentence to the negotiating table without maybe Britain’s decisions. But that’s right and the right pressure would want sovereignty most likely would force would be good for Russia to get sovereignty saved, create in agreeing to solve seed sovereignty over Crimea or something. But again, that’s understood that that’s not happening. Long-term pauses in the fighting, opposing the fighting would be important right now for Russia and that’s most likely the kind of realizable objective that Moscow sees right now, achievable.
A consultancy that’s focused on Russia and you, Eurasia. Extensive experience in the region. Here we’re looking at a situation where the Ukrainian morale is higher, civil society is backing a lot of the Ukrainian military. They are about to get the Patriot defense missile system from the US as part of this one-point, $7 billion aid package that they’re going to get. Moscow wants a pause in the fighting to be able to go to the negotiating table. Is there any way that these two sides can meet when Ukraine doesn’t quite have the upper hand right, certainly in a better position?
just reflecting on what previous speakers said, the position of Russia appears to be one of maximizing pressure not only on praying with the missile strikes obviously in infrastructure and on people, but they put pressure also on. Transporters in New York, for example, are particular and of course, I think that the timing, therefore, is you know, not coincidental. We are moving into the kind of colder part of winter where the energy you know will be a much bigger issue potentially still, you know, energy costs and energy disruption. So, I think you know for Russia this is the best time to maximize pressure. On Ukraine and maximize pressure perhaps on Europe or at least you know kind of take advantage of the maximum pressure on European sense and then at the same time you know put on the table the possibility or the openness for talk. So, I think the timing is to do with you know the weather, the energy facts. And also, the fact that you know Ukraine has now agreed to this very substantial deal with the US.
you’ve mentioned Patrick, missiles, and other technologies. So, again the situation militarily might be quite different than in the spring or after the spring and Russia may be more vulnerable so, this is for sure the best time for Russia to both increase pressure as well as offer the possibility of talks and also in terms of the economy, we are moving into a different phase in the economy in Russia, more debilitating phase 2022. You know, it’s more about crisis management.
But Russia has made a great deal of money, a lot of money. This year trade surplus will be close to $300 billion, so the National Welfare Fund and the other financial reserves are very high. But that is going to change. It’s already changing the ban on crude imports to Europe, the ban on the oil products coming in February, and their much lower volume of gas exports in into Europe.
That means Russia will earn a lot less in 2023 and as we go forward course you know that that that will have more of a damaging impact that would reduce rush financial reserve, all of these things combined as to why we’re now hearing this possibility of talks at this stage Russia’s position may weaken as we go forward certainly economically because of the accumulation of sanctions impact upon what do
Russia’s position is weak and therefore it needs to come to negotiating table. Is that an accurate assessment Offer? The official line is that Russians?
The Russian military is strong. The Russian defense industry is producing more weapons. The Western sanctions are not working. But it’s well understood that there are serious problems. The Battle of France, its a stalemate then could get worse and so Russia anyways needs a pause to the arm to consolidate its territorial grabs. Five, prepare for possible further conflicts in the future, so that would be a preferable result.
Offering talks is good, if it doesn’t work well then there’s going to be military pressure coming. And it’s most likely everyone is preparing to brace for the acceleration of the fighting on the battlefield, and maybe rather soon in January, say, when the cold weather freezes, the dirt finally, and both sides can go mobile, which they cannot yet right now because though it’s very much winter in Moscow.
Down there in the South of Ukraine it’s not, but it will be, and most likely both sides were terribly looking forward to a decisive crash where Russia hopes to stop a Ukrainian offensive and reverse it and has reserved for that. so, it’s most likely to see that first there’s going to be increased fighting, and then because of that fighting, maybe both sides will agree to negotiate stuff for it.
President Vladimir Zelensky is talking about this peace plan that he wants to unveil in February. There’s still plenty of time. We now and February to finalize that piece, man,
But what would you like to see in that plan? unveiled in February, this built plenty of time between now and February to finalize that peace plan. But what would you like to see?
In that plan, you know, the president’s Zelensky over DS said you were ITS support what is inside during his latest features and there are certain basics. Restoration of the Ukrainian territorial integrity and sovereignty is the axial fair. It is something that we are not ready even to discuss what is right. Culture stays without your hands up to your right. you would like to have all your body. The second is the definition of guarantees for Ukrainian security something not like Budapest Memorandum that you signed when we rejected our nuclear weapons.
But something that can prevent further possible attacks from the Washington operation. Because unfortunately currently there is in Ukraine that we are in several years with Russia is not properly defeated, it can repeat. Doesn’t matter how the fighting is happening now we are speaking about the coalition of friends and partners. The lies of Ukraine can’t be with us. In this case, we’re speaking about the possible control over the Russians.
Military sphere. Probably not the total demilitarization as some dream about, but at least the demilitarization of the align the Ukrainian borders. We will also speak about the reconstruction plan because that’s also the big question. Who will be reconstructing the country that is destroyed now by the Russians? And why the Western governments should pay for this? Where we have a lot of Ukraine, Russian money increased in different countries. So that is quite a complex plan that has both these security forces, the military part, and also the social humanitarian parts because of the reconstruction of the country.
And about the tribunal or you can call it in any different way, but about justice, because there are so many militaries as the war crimes being committed during these eight months and unfortunately if each liberated territory, we are finding more and more cases on the most graves of the civilian killings.
That’s why we understand that part of the peace plan also will be any type of justice search will be the truth and Reconciliation Committee or the Tribunal.
I’d like to put the points that you’ve made. we’re looking at two very stark positions here, two very two positions that are so far apart from each other that negotiated settlement seems highly unlikely. Is there any room for maneuvering that you can see?
I think in terms of the position stated by both sides, then you have to say no, the positions are just opposites from each other, and you know at the very minimum you talk like years and years and years of the negotiations. I think realistically and optimistically about what people are hoping for, simply a frozen conflict, a cessation of the fighting where, where, where, where missiles are flying, and people are no longer dying. That is, I think, the most realistic kind of level of optimism at this point. you know, what type of peace deal might be finding negotiated, because that just seems so. Far away from the reality that there’s no level of optimism that both sides could come together based on where they are right now.
We would require leadership change in Russia for sure, but many years now, I think at this stage what we’re looking for and maybe what muscle is hoping for is the terms of some sort of a ceasefire where the political process could then start last for years. But a ceasefire would be important for Russia because it would probably end the momentum toward new sanctions.
if there was a ceasefire remember, a lot of the most damaging sanctions against Russia are voluntary rather than legislative which are as companies that have on their own initiative. Decided not to buy Russian, not to work with Russian, and not to be in Russia. They’re still leaving, so I think the ceasefire, then you might Moscow may involve that those sanctions momentum would end some of those voluntary sanctions properties and companies would be under less pressure to leave, so I think it’s all about a ceasefire. It’s nothing about. That’s just too far, Constance and two different Pavel in Moscow word Moscow consider a ceasefire as I guess that London has just said, would it consider that as a victory?
let’s not mean anything that happens. The gremlins are going to spin this lecture, that’s not the problem. But the ceasefire is what Russia right now needs, based, as I say, on the line of control or freezing of the situation and the details of who gets spotted. Are negotiable, but that is the baseline.
That works mostly muscle with one, but I don’t right now see it as happening immediately. I believe that first, it’s going to be decided on the battlefield and most likely during the short but maybe vicious winter campaign because in the West, people in the winter go to winter quarters. You know, five minutes freezing and Russia and Ukraine they do because then the third freezes and you can move through fields and dirt roads and it’s everything frozen solid. And that’s where most likely both sides military, military commands and both sides are, gearing up for a very serious crash.