Climate and environmental change in the world will have many victims, and trade is one of them. The damage that human activities have done to nature will eventually befall him, and man has no choice but to find a way to curb climate change in order to survive. In its recent report, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) warned of the far-reaching effects of these changes on countries around the world, especially developing countries. The report emphasizes that the adoption of appropriate policies for the agricultural, fisheries, and tourism sectors, as well as the diversification of the economic sectors, is necessary to reduce the environmental consequences.
According to UNCTAD, the accumulation of pollutants produced by humans and human activities has led to rising greenhouse gas concentrations and fueled climate change. The physical effects of climate change can be seen in many countries, including rising temperatures, prolonged droughts, increased hurricanes, winds, and rains, increased tropical storms, desertification, and rising sea levels. The intrusion of saline water into groundwater, algae growth, and coral bleaching were noted. In the meantime, although these effects are devastating to the whole world, developing countries will undoubtedly suffer more seriously and will be an important obstacle to development. The intensity and geographical distribution of the effects of future climate change depend on the time and continuity of greenhouse gases in the world and will guide the development path of developing countries. As a result, reducing climate change requires the development of development paths that significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions, because if all countries live up to their commitments to the Paris climate agreement, global warming will occur. It will last for decades, and over the next few centuries, the earth will move toward colder weather. It is clear that ambitious measures cannot be expected to prevent the escalation of climate change, but it is expected that humans will be able to reduce the damage to the earth to 2100.
According to UNCTAD, adverse climate change will have far-reaching economic, environmental, and social implications. Predicted effects include land degradation and ecosystem. Decreased productivity in agriculture and fisheries; Damage to residential, commercial, and office infrastructure; The declining tourism boom and the declining productivity of individuals and workers, health threats, and mass migration are just some of the devastating effects of climate change on the economy. Also, high damage to infrastructure due to the wrath of nature, such as drought, wind, and rainstorms, in the short term, will be a heavy cost to governments and communities. On the other hand, the warm environment of the earth and the oceans will cause climate change in the poles and will target the ecosystem and human population of these areas. As a result, global economic and trade activities are changing in response to these events, creating new patterns of comparative advantage. Among these, the greatest benefits go to the polar regions and the greatest losses to the tropical and subtropical regions, where, ironically, most of the world’s developing countries are located. Despite the dominant role of developed countries in increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, the burden of adapting to climate change will be borne mainly by developing countries. According to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, agriculture, fisheries and tourism will be the three sectors most vulnerable to climate change. Natural disasters will pose challenging challenges for developing countries to maintain production, employment, and exports in these sectors of the economy. According to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, agriculture, fisheries, and tourism will be the three sectors most vulnerable to climate change. Natural disasters will pose challenging challenges for developing countries to maintain production, employment, and exports in these sectors of the economy. According to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, agriculture, fisheries, and tourism will be the three sectors most vulnerable to climate change. Natural disasters will pose challenging challenges for developing countries to maintain production, employment, and exports in these sectors of the economy.
As long as developing countries do not boost their trade resilience through smart measures, their climate-dependent industry and trade will suffer. In a situation where a country has neither the ability to adapt to this crisis nor this adaptation to it, it must diversify it’s business and trade by rebuilding its economy. According to UNCTAD, the estimated cost of adapting to climate change for developing countries in 2030 will be about $ 140 billion to $ 300 billion. Developing countries have committed to jointly allocate $ 100 billion a year to meet climate change needs. With such a budget, only $ 50 billion a year would be available to adapt countries to the consequences of climate change, which is clearly insufficient. To fill this gap, countries must work with the private sector to diversify their economies to be ready for the future.
Climate change will not only affect the index of exports and imports of developing countries but also their reactions to climate change. Elimination of fuel subsidies and carbon taxation are among these effects on the economy. Relative changes in the competitiveness of producers and the level of consumer demand also affect the number of exports and imports and, in a general sense, the trade of countries. Efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions will also have indirect consequences for the economy. Some countries, by setting environmental standards, will prevent some products from entering their borders or impose taxes on such products; Such policies are referred to as “border carbon regulations” or “border carbon taxes”.
Undoubtedly, climate change and the policies adopted to reduce it will have different and complex effects on global markets and trade, affecting transportation costs, competition, and trade policies. Each developing country will have a unique path to resist the business climate. Policymakers need to assess how the physical effects of climate change will affect themselves and their competitors in the markets, and take appropriate measures to achieve their maximum profit.
At the end of its report, the UN Conference on Trade and Development sets a model for developing countries. According to this model, these countries should first identify potential climate change in their country and then evaluate and estimate the consequences of these changes. Policymakers must then assess the physical effects of environmental change for each sector separately and extract appropriate responses. Next, each country must identify its needs and options for adapting to such conditions and estimate its costs, and reach regulatory agreements in various areas. This model should be implemented not only at the national level but also at the transnational level, then the results were collected. In all these stages, it is sometimes necessary to make updates and revisions to the adopted policies.
